If you are not consulting Ken Pomeroy’s name KenPom Rating Before making your 2021 NCAA tournament bracket picks all the way through to the Final Four, you must be doing it wrong. Due to those unexpected fluctuations, early exits and a brilliant finish, it is called March Madness – but in the end, it is still about statistical purity.
Sure, Dick Witley is terrific, kid, and Charles Barclay gives you so much more than Chuck-Lace, but Ken Pomeroy’s breakdown of the depth, number-based bracket is no longer fancy analytics – it’s also a history of success. Decides.
You can learn a lot by looking at the results of the last 12 NCAA tournaments. With the Nets cut from Virginia, who took the most recent title two years ago in Virginia in 2008, only five teams (10.4 percent) that went into the top-20 Tour in Kenpom advanced to the Final Four. Along with Vergania (No. 1 in Kenpom), the runners-up in the 2019 Final Four were Texas Tech (No. 5 in Kenpom), Michigan State (No. 3 in Kenpom) and Auburn (No. 11 in Kenpom).
Eight of the last 12 NCAA champions were ranked No. 1 in Kenpom. Another, Gonzaga, in 2017, made the championship game. Yet another, Kentucky in 2015, made it to the Final Four.
March Madness: Best bracket name for 2021
So this is where you find the right chalk. But KenPom can also help you identify bracket sleepers and busts based on two signature figures: Adjusted offensive ability And Adjusted defensive efficiency. If a team is rated high in any field, it can make up for deficiencies at the other end.
In 2018, when Loyola-Chicago crashed the Final Four, it had the No. 17 Kenpom defense on its side. In 2017, South Carolina finished 91st in offense, but ran a Cinderella in the Final Four as the No. 7 seed to defend its third place. In 2013, Louisville held its seventh-ranked offense and the top-four defense in the Final Four.
The two biggest statistical anomalies since 2010 – VCU and Butler in 2011 – and keeping the KenPom in the national semi-finals are nothing shocking. If a team is given more status on both offense and defense, it can beat anyone in any part of the tournament.
But before using KenPom to make their March Madness bracket pics, here are some things to know about this year’s NCAA tournament field, based on their ratings:
MARCH MADNESS: Download a 2021 printable bracket
Kenpom rating for madness 2021 march
Top teams in NCAA tournament
| 1. Gonzaga (No. 1 in the West) |
| 2. Michigan (formerly No. 1) |
| 3. Illinois (No. 1 in the Midwest) |
| 4. Baylor (No. 1 in the South) |
| 5. Iowa (No. 2 in the West) |
| 6. Houston (No. 2 in the Midwest) |
| 7. Ohio State (No. 2 in the South) |
| 8. Alabama (formerly No. 2) |
Top teams in adjusted offensive efficiency
| 1. Gonzaga (No. 1 in the West) |
| 2. Iowa (No. 2 in the West) |
| 3. Boiler (No. 1 in the South) |
| 4. Ohio State (No. 2 in the South) |
| 5. LSU (formerly No. 8) |
| 6. Michigan (formerly No. 1) |
| 7. Illinois (No. 1 in the Midwest) |
| 8. Houston (No. 2 in the Midwest) |
Top teams in adjusted defensive efficiency
| 1. Loyola-Chicago (No. 8 in the Midwest) |
| 2. Alabama (formerly No. 2) |
| 3. Tennessee (No. 5 in the Midwest) |
| 4. Illinois (No. 1 in the Midwest) |
| 5. Kansas (No. 3 in the West) |
| 6. Michigan (formerly No. 1) |
| 7. Utah State (No. 11 in the South) |
| 8. Gonzaga (No. 1 in the West) |
Most likely first-round upsets based on KenPom
| 1. No. 9 Wisconsin No. 8 North Carolina (South) |
| 2. No. 10 Rutgers Over 7 Clemson (Midwest) |
| 3. No. 9 cents Bonvent over 8 cents LSU (East) |
| 4. Number 10 VCU at No. 7 Oregon (West) |
| 5. No. 10 Virginia Tech at No. 7 Florida (South) |
| 6. No. 7 Maryland at No. 7 Connecticut (East) |
| 7. No. 6 Texas Tech (South) over No. 11 Utah State |
| 8. No. 11 UCLA (Formerly if it plays) |
Most underrated teams in NCAA tournament
| 1. Wisconsin (No. 10 in Kenpom, No. 9 in the South) |
| 2. Loyola-Chicago (No. 8 in Kenpom, No. 8 in Midwest) |
| 3. Connecticut (No. 16 in Kenpom, formerly No. 7) |
| 4. St. Bonventure (No. 25 in Kenpom, formerly No. 9) |
| 5. USC (No. 14 in Kenpom, No. 6 in the West) |
| 6. Maryland (No. 31 in Kenpom, formerly No. 10) |
| 7. Villanova (No. 12 in Kenpom, No. 5 in the South) |
| 8. Rutgers (No. 34 in Kenpom, No. 10 in Midwest) |
Most overrated teams in NCAA tournament
| 1. West Virignia (No. 27 in Kenpom, No. 3 in the Midwest) |
| 2. Missouri (number 51 in Kenpom, number 9 in the west) |
| 3. Texas (No. 26 in Kenpom, formerly No. 3) |
| 4. Oklahoma State (No. 30 in Kenpom. No. 4 in the Midwest) |
| 5. Clemson (No. 42 in Kenpom, No. 7 in Midwest) |
| 6. Kansas (No. 22 in Kenpom, No. 3 in the West) |
| 7. Virginia Tech (No. 50 at KenPom, No. 10 at South) |
| 8. Florida (No. 37 in Kenpom, No. 7 in the South) |
March Madness bracket forecast 2021
Western region
South Zone
Midwest region
East Zone
Final four pics
- Gonzaga
- Ohio State
- Illinois
- Michigan
National Champion: Gonzaga
Gonzaga’s resumption at 26-0 is the same style as Virginia’s resumption in the KenPom rankings in 2019. In that tournament, Gonzaga was second in KenPom and Elite Eight in KenPom, Texas Tech upset by the powerful fifth team.
This year, Gonzaga faces a similar hurdle: Iowa, the No. 2 seed in the West, is also No. 5 in Kenpom. Before that point the bracket is very favorable. For the Bulldogs, it comes down to the Hawkeyes refraining from ending another promising championship-caliber season of the Final Four.
More brief pictures: Alcoholic | Fagan
How the Zags can get through the national semifinals is their top-order offense and better defensive efficiency than the Hawkeyes. Two more Big Ten powers that are No. 1 seed, Illinois and Michigan, are well-rounded teams. Baylor is No. 4 in Kenorome, but there is a steep drop in defensive efficiency to No. 44, making it far less dangerous than the other three top seeds.
Based on the creation of both teams, Gonzaga and Machigan will represent the two best teams meeting in the national semifinals in Indianapolis. Illinois, with Midwest seed ahead of Houston and West Virginia, is the second-safest bet to reach the final four, though, as Alabama has a more dangerous regional final opponent for Michigan. In the end, it would be the Zags carrying the Illini after Illinois re-routed through Ohio State.
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