Everyone wants to win their March Madness bracket pool, but if you can’t take home the big prize, the next most gratifying thing is saying the start of a first round. Even if you select 10 underdogs for the second round and only one advance, you may still be nervous about that pick every March for the next decade. Obviously, bragging rights increase as the seed grows, but being upset 7-10 in the NCAA Tournament seems like an accomplishment.
Simply put, choosing upsets is more fun. If you stare at your bracket for a long time, you can convince yourself that almost every game is a toss-up. Of course, the high seeds are more likely to win in the first round, but going out on a limb with a few bold pix is what March Madness is all about.
How do you decide what underdogs to actually pull the trigger? There are a variety of ways to listen to experts, from looking at advanced statistics to just guessing, but one underestimated method is looking at Vegas odds.
Bracket Tips: KenPom | Play the odds. Idiot guide
When you are talking to people about the game you often hear about “Vegas is something we know”. It usually refers to a point that is smaller or larger than expected. If two different teams seem to have only a three-point spread, it usually tells you that Vegas thinks the game will be relatively close. This does not always happen, of course – Top-seed Virginia was a 20.5-point favorite at 16-seed UMBC in 2018 – but it is still a useful tool when hunting for troubled pix.
With this in mind, below we offer some of the most notable point spreads for double-digit seeds, starting with Rutgers, the lone double-digit favorite.
More: Get your printable NCAA tournament bracket here
March Mad predicts 2021
Courtesy FanDuel Sportsbook
Number 10 router (-1) vs number 7 Clemson
A 10-seed beating a 7-seed is not really huge, but it still feels the same when you look at your bracket and a double-digit seed in the second round (or beyond). It is not surprising that Rutgers are being favored, as these teams are in “mediocre” camps, at least as far as tournaments go. The Scarlet Knights rank 34th kenpom.com Compared to Clemson in 42, and Team ranking Rutgers are slightly higher in its power rating.
Overall, this is a lot of toss-up, but given the possibility that more than 10 people choose the 7-seed, this is a rare situation where there is value in going with a favorite. You can read more about this matchup here.
More: Break every matchup with the TeamRankings Predictor tool
No. 10 VIRGINIA TECH (+1) vs. No. 7 Florida
Here is another 7-10 game which is a virtual toss-up. Virginia Tech has played only three games since February 6 – two of which were lost – so you can’t really say that the Hokies are “hot” or “cold”. Although he has been given rest. Florida is 5-5 in their last 10 games, so it is also lukewarm. Ultimately, it looks like a forgetful game, but since you’re trying to win the bracket, you don’t want to get it wrong.
Vegas sees it in spite of both the pimple and the pimples kenpom.com And Team ranking This is a good opportunity to steal the game on most people in your pool, favoring Florida by a fairly comfortable margin.
No. 10 Maryland (+2.5) vs. No. 7 UCON
Kenpom.com There is a lot more on Yukon than Maryland, so it’s a little surprising that Vegas sees it as one of the closest first-round matchups. TeamRankings breaks it very favorably for UConn, too, as you can see below. Once again, though, Vegas clearly looks like something we don’t.
As we said earlier, any 7-10 result would actually be a shocking upset, but this is another situation where most people in your pool will likely default to UConn, especially if they do any research. This gives you a chance to take a game on most of your pool in a competition that will likely come down to a basket in some way.
No. 11 UTAH State (+4.5) vs. No. 6 Texas Tech
The Aggies were one of the final teams of the tournament, but their victory in six of their final seven matches helped them dance. Vegas feels they will tee up with Texas Tech, possibly due to Utah State’s stellar defense (ranked eighth) kenpom.com’s adjusted defense metric) Belongs to. Both teams struggle shooting from deep, so it can be a real rock fight. In that kind of grind-it-out game, there is always a good shot in the defensive-minded swamp.
All are heavy in TeamRankings “Conquer the odds“Factors in favor of Texas Tech, but it’s not surprising for a 6-11 matchup. However, it’s also clear from their numbers that Utah State has a better defense. It can go either way, so Even if you choose Texas Tech, you probably don’t want the Red Raiders to go beyond the second round.
No. 12 Georgette (+4.5) vs. No. 5 Colorado
Georgetown was unlikely for the tournament for the Big East Championship, which certainly surprised many, but now that the Hoys are in and playing well, people are ready to ride the bandeauge. The fact that they are playing a Pac-12 team that is not a naughty power probably has the bookies running this line, but either way, it would be a popular 12-5 upset pick (popular as Winthrop No, which is a 6.5. -Dog underdog, a bang on Villanova, but still popular).
should it be? Well, kenpom.com The teams don’t seem to be particularly close, ranking Colorado 17th and Georgetown 55th. Team ranking Hoyce seems to like a little more, but not much. It’s more about going with the “hot” team, and Vegas at least hopes to shut it down.
No. 13 Liberty (+7.5) vs. No. 4 Oklahoma State
There are probably more people predicting Oklahoma State to make the Final Four than losing in the first round, but make no mistake – Liberty will put up a fight. Flames ended for the 10th seat in the nation in three points (38.8), and any Dalit who could fill it deep could be a problem in the tournament.
The state of oklahoma is Better team And freshman Cade Cunningham has a one-man viking crew, but the game may surprise some people only when it has a 7.5-point spread. If you are in a large pool and need to make a bold pick or two, this is a good opportunity to jig while everyone else zags.
No. 13 OHIO (+7.5) vs. No. 4 Virginia
This prevalence may be more about Virginia than Ohio. Most of the Virginia team is in quarantine after positive COVID tests within the program. At best, the Cavs will have a slightly slimmer-roster after just one week of virtual practices; At worst, Virginia would withdraw from the tournament. A middle option – one or two stars after a week without practice – is also in play. Either way, Ohio is an advantage.
There is a legal offense in Ohio that can put a mark on the board in a hurry (in the 14th Points per game) Belongs to. If Virginia is overcome, a Bobcats victory would not be a major setback. Vegas sees this as a relatively close 4-13 game, so stay on top of the news out of Charlottesville and choose accordingly.
Number 14 ABILENE Christian (+9) vs Texas
A nine-point spread is not narrow at all, but anything less than 10 is notable in 3–14 games. Abilene-Christian is known for a solid defense (in the 30th) kenpom.comDefense metric adjusted), but it is a skilled three-point shooting team (Tied for 21st At 37.7). 3-and-D underdogs are always dangerous in March. Texas isn’t particularly great on one thing – just generally solid and well trained – so it’s really nothing to “come back early” if things go south.
Apparently, the Longhorns have woken up Safe game, But if you’re in a big pool and need some discrimination, it’s not crazy to take on the Wildcats.
No. 14 (+9.5) vs. Arkansas
Colgate is all crime, all the time. Raiders were in fourth place Average margin of victory In this year (17.7) and third Three-point percentage (60.2). The Hogs can then go on defense and play with solid pace on offense, so Colgate won’t be able to play them all as if they are a Patriot League team, but it’s easy to imagine a scenario where the Raiders would just Never miss and pull an upset.
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