Day 1 of the NCAA tournament may not happen this year on Thursday, as is traditionally, but the wall-to-wall schedule is the same. Friday’s action has been going on for a while after noon ET when Virginia Tech takes on Florida, and it likely won’t end after midnight when Villanova and Winthrop (or one of the other late-night tips) finish Will go. All told, there will be 16 first-round games on Friday, and you can expect plenty of drama and possible bracket-busting upsets.
The top seeders will be in boiler and Illinois action, but unless someone gets a legitimate fear of what they throw (without, but is possible), they won’t be involved in the most interesting games. Those in the bracket pool will likely be interested in 12–5 games (Oregon State-Tennessee and Winthrop-Villanova), along with other popular double-digit upset picks Rutgers (vs. Clemson), Virginia Tech (vs. Florida), Utah State ( Vs. Texas Tech), Syracuse (vs. San Diego State), and even Colgate (vs. Arkansas).
Of course, there will probably be another major upset that no one is expecting, so buckle up and get ready for all the fun of March Madness that we missed last season. To help you out, here are SN’s straightforward pics, as well as some insight into betting trends and tips if you’re fighting against the spread.
MORE MARCH MADNESS: Round 1 Odds | Parley Printable bracket
March Madness picks, predictions for round 1
No. 10 Virginia Tech (PK) vs. No. 7 Florida (South)
The line has grown steadily in the direction of Virginia Tech since it opened, and it looks like it is going to settle as a pick ’em. Neither team has played specifically down the stretch (barely playing due to COVID issues with Virginia Tech), so it’s really a toss-up. TeamRanking Matchup Predictor Points to Florida, and we give the Gators a slight setback due to a lack of significant action (1-2 since February 1) compared to the previous month.
pick up the: Florida
No. 3 Arkansas (-9.5) vs. No. 14 Colgate (South)
Colgate finished third in the nation Three-point percentage (40.2) and in the fourth Average margin of victory (17.7), so you know that Raiders can fill it. He likely did not face defenses like the Hogs, but shooting could be an issue for Arkansas, making it somewhat vulnerable against hot-shooting teams. Colgate doesn’t really defend, so it can go many ways – Arkansas blowout, winning Colgate in a shootout, winning Arkansas in a shootout – but it’s more fun to make a call when there are valid reasons to think It can actually happen.
pick up the: Colgate
No. 1 Illinois (-22.5) vs. No. 16 Drexel (Midwest)
For most, the question here is not whether Illinois will win; Whether it will be covered or not. The illini Average 81.4 points per game This season, which is about 10 more than Drexel. Now the competition has a factor of difference, and it’s easy to imagine a 23-plus-point win. Whenever you deal with this large spread, you always have to worry about backdoor cover, but Illinois seems like a decent bet to take care of business until this line continues to climb.
pick up the: Illinois
No. 6 Texas Tech (-4) vs. No. 11 Utah State (South)
There is another line here which has steadily advanced towards the marshes. Utah State plays elite defense, finishing eighth kenpom.comAdjusted Defense Metric. Texas Tech is a balanced team, but may struggle with outside shooting. If the Red Raiders are cold, Utah State can turn it into a rock fight and steal a low-scoring win. If the line is falling short, Texas Tech may actually become a value bet just before the tip, but we still prefer a nose-to-edge Aggies.
pick up the: Utah State
No. 2 Ohio State (-16) vs. No. 15 Oral Roberts (South)
Oral Roberts has a legal insider threat with versatile big man Kevin Obnor and sweet shooting guard Max Abamas, Average 24.2 points per game this year 50–40–90 near shooting. It wouldn’t be a shock to see Oral Roberts covered, but Ohio State likely has a lot of depth and size that really bothers him.
pick up the: Ohio State
No. 1 Baylor (-25.5) vs. No. 16 Hartford (South)
Boiler won his games From an average 18 points per game this year, so a 26-point win against Hartford is not possible, it seems. Be careful about this line going too far in Baylor’s direction and Hartford has become a value, but in the current line, Baylor looks good.
pick up the: Boiler
No. 8 Loyola Chicago (-4.5) vs. No. 9 Georgia Tech (Midwest)
Fightin’s sister jeans (Loyola is not Chicago’s actual surname) are back, and they will undoubtedly be a popular pick due to their “name recognition”. However, according to kenpom.comAdvanced stats, the Ramblers (the actual nickname of Loyola Chicago) are not just some pretty mid-major storylines, they are a legal threat to another deep run in the ninth ranking among all teams. Georgia Tech certainly does not help with the fact that ACC Player of the Year Moses Wright will miss the game due to issues related to Kovid. It seems too easy for the 8-9 game, which annoys us, but sometimes the obvious pick is obvious for a reason. Expect this line to move even further in the direction of Loyola Chicago closer to the tip.
pick up the: Loyola chicago
No. 5 Tennessee (-9) vs. No. 12 Oregon State (Midwest)
Oregon State is a surprise participant in this year’s tournament after winning the Pac-12 title, so if you believe in the “hot hands” theory, it’s a 12-5 upset pick over Colorado as Georgetown Is good (which seems to be more popular). Tennessee did not play its best basketball under the stretch, going 4-4 and losing to Kentucky and Auburn in the final month. There is minimal reason to believe Oregon State is covered, but Tennessee has an elite defense (in fourth) kenpom.comAdjusted the defense metric) and must be able to proceed.
pick up the: Tennessee
No. 4 Oklahoma State (-7.5) vs. No. 13 Liberty (Midwest)
Oklahoma State is a popular Final Four pick in some circles; It is also a popular first round upset taker in others. This line hovers at around 7.5 throughout the week, indicating equal money flows on both sides. Liberty was tied for 10th Three point shooting (38.8 percent) and was seventh overall Aggressive efficiency, So if they are hot the flames can coexist with the cowboys. In the end, though, we expect Oklahoma State to lead the top-overall NBA pick Cade Cunningham to exploit the talent gap and secure a close win.
pick up the: Oklahoma State
No. 8 North Carolina (-1.5) vs. No. 9 Wisconsin (South)
In this coin-flip battle of traditional powers, we are about to rely on advanced stats and go with the Badgers, who rank 11th overall kenpom.com. By comparison, UNC is ranked 28th. By no means is this a lock, especially when you lead to a lack of big wins in Wisconsin, but with a game like this, you need to return something, and we’re going with the computer.
pick up the: Wisconsin
No. 2 Houston (-20) vs. No. 15 Cleveland State (Midwest)
The top-15 are offense (eighth) and defense (15th) according to Houston kenpom.com, And cougar are Won by an average 18 points per game this season. They have not faced the toughest schedule, but Cleveland State is not the toughest opponent. A major component for large upsets is usually outside shooting, and is tied at Cleveland State 257th Three-point percentage (31.9 percent). It’s hard to imagine keeping the Vikings close to this one, so we’re covering Houston.
pick up the: Houston
No. 4 Purdue (-7.5) vs. No. 13 North Texas (South)
This line seems a bit short, but North Texas is a good one. Outside shooting team It has some big guards who can put pressure on the ball, as well as a pair of inside 6-10 players who can try to keep at least 7-4 with center Zach Ade. Covering Mean Green can certainly be believed (though it will still be a tough fight), but Purdue’s big-game experience (and success) suggests scales when it comes to just moving forward is.
pick up the: Purdue
No. 10 Rutgers (-1.5) vs. No. 7 Clemson (Midwest)
Rutgers favored being opened as an “underdog”, and the line did not last much throughout the week. Both teams are much higher in adjusted defense ratings than adjusted ratings. kenpom.com, But Rutgers is slightly higher overall. TeamRanking Matchup Predictor As close as you might expect, Rutgers has a node in “power ratings” and Clemson has a node in “simulation”. We’re playing the role of Rutgers in this year’s toughest conference, but we’ll stick with favorites, but flip a coin and trust your gut here.
pick up the: Rutgers
No. 6 San Diego State (-3) vs. No. 11 Syracuse (Midwest)
It is easy to find out why this line fell to such a low number for games 6–11. Syracuse is not your typical 11-seed, and San Diego State is not thought of as a national power. However, San Diego State is ranked above Syracuse kenpom.com, And TeamRanking Matchup Predictor Also seems to be in favor of Aztec. The defense of Syracuse’s sanctioned zone has upset a lot of teams, but we don’t see it here, especially with San Diego being in the top-25 of the state Three point shooting team.
pick up the: San diego state
No. 3 West Virginia (-13) vs. No. 14 Morehead State (Midwest)
West Virginia’s famous press can quickly outpace inferior opponents, and Morehead State ranks 127th kenpom.com. The spread of 13 is always risky Poor shooting team Like West Virginia, but a clear win is likely.
pick up the: West Virginia
No. 5 Villanova (-6.5) vs. No. 12 Winthrop (South)
It was everyone’s initial 12-5 upset, and it didn’t change throughout the week. Injuries to save Coleen Gillespie (knee) and Justin Moore (ankle) make the ‘Nova to Handicap’ difficult, and the 23-1 Eagles are not easy with high scoring. At the very least, to cover Winthrop seems like smart move, and we are riding with the public on choosing Winthrop outright.
pick up the: WINTHROP
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