The NCAA Tournament Selection Committee had a better opportunity to balance the strength of the four regions in the 2021 event at any point in nearly two decades as the entire event at Indiana State meant no longer geography.
Without having to worry about keeping teams close to home for their games, they could simply seed according to strength and then create a similar bracket using those rankings.
Except … there are convention rules to follow, and there is the fact that seedlings are not always as accurate as we want them to be.
So how did the committee do it? Which of the four No. 1 seeds is the best route to the Final Four, and which is the most challenging?
Field Construction:
WEST | East | South | MIDWEST
Here are the answers:
Gonzaga
Area Rank: The fourth
Biggest obstacle: Iowa. The number of Hawkeyes on defense has steadily improved. In early February, when they lost four in five-games, the Hawkeyes dropped out of KenPom’s top 100 in defensive efficiency. He began to understand the season that he needed to dramatically improve on the 97th rank D last season if he wanted to take a swing at the NCAA Championships, and that they somehow screwed up. But the season was not over, and during the past three weeks they have held seven of their 10 opponents under 70 points and moved up to 50th in defense. This is a different Iowa team than the Zags who played the last time around.
The team they want to see: Number 5 Crayton. This Bluejays team has been greatly improved on defense from prior editions, but the lack of size will make it a more comfortable day for Drew Taimi, and the extra focus needed to overpower the Zag’s perimeter. Even before a huge disappointment in the Big East title game against Georgetown, they had lost the last five matches twice.
Lurk in the bottom half: No. 7 Oregon. Coach Dana Altman is looking for a way to advance his teams to the NCAA tournament. The Ducks have made a second weekend in each of their last three tournaments, including the final four trips in 2017. Along with Gifted Wing Chris Duert, Altman has a player who can lay the foundation for a great team. And the Duck won the Pac-12 regular season. So maybe everyone gets out under the guise of a conference tournament – and Oregon is ready for another March run.
Will Gonzaga be able to make it to the Final Four: Yes. They are the best team with the right combination of experience, size, depth, talent and coaching. And they know that they can win teams that are likely to play. Gonzaga has already defeated one of the next three highest seeds in the region: No. 2 Iowa, No. 3 Kansas and No. 4 Virginia. It never seems to have happened since the NCAA started the event in 1979, but it is going to take more time than I have to establish it as a fact.
Illinois
Area: Midwest
Area Rank: The third
Biggest obstacle: No. 4 Oklahoma State. Positioning the Cowboys on the bracket creates the possibility that the Fighting Illini will have to defeat the most talented player in the tournament, Cade Cunningham, and a team only to advance to the regional finals with 10 wins against Quad 1 opponents. The selection committee relies on advanced metrics that suggest the Cowboys are closer to the No. 7 seed than the No. 3 seed, but their results declare that they are among the most dangerous teams in the tournament. Cunningham has been a team-changing player in the final month of the season, assuring his selection as a first-team All-American and helped secure two wins against No. 3 seed West Virginia, a win over a conference tournament boiler And a regular rival, Sasson Sweep of Oklahoma.
The team they want to see: No. 2 Houston. Why? This would mean the Illini survived the Elite Eight and would face the weakest No. 2 seed in the tournament. Someone had to get the final No. 2 seed, and there was no one who met all the qualifications, so it went to the Cougars despite struggling twice a week to defeat a non-tournament Memphis team And only had a 2-for-1 record against teams in the field.
Lurk in the bottom half: No. 6 San Diego State. The main players of this team have a 53-6 record in the last two seasons. This is an .898 winning percentage. They know how to win. Forward Matt Mitchell averages 15.5 points, his fourth consecutive season as a double-figure scorer and may be the lowest-scoring player in all of college basketball.
Will the Illini become Final Four? Yes. He has a developing, game-changing talent at guard (Sporting News First-Team All-American Ayo Dosanmu) and center spots (All-American Kofi Cockburn) and freshman point guard Andre Kurbello. Their defense is one of the best in the country and they can score in a variety of ways. Players have played their part in their rotation. This is all for them. Until Cade Cunningham wipes it out.
Brief Picture: DeCourcy (Gonzaga) | Alcoholic (Illinois) | Fagan (Gonzaga)
Michigan
Area: East
Area Rank: Second.
Biggest obstacle: No. 8 LSU. There are better teams in the region than the Tigers, but to play such a talented team so quickly … well, that’s exactly what the committee is supposed to do to avoid making these brackets and seeding the teams, but Even after the Tigers won, four games in a row – including NCAA tournament-bound Missouri and Arkansas and bubble-bound Ole Miss – and led Alabama to the SEC Championship game in the final seconds, still holding them to an 8/9 game went. It is not clear whether Isaiah Liver will come forward during the tournament, but it is at least likely that he will be available the first weekend. Getting into Sweet 16 will be no breeze.
The team they want to see: Number 5 Colorado. Presented with the chance to win the championship and hang a banner against an Oregon State squad, ranked 85th by KenPom and 91st in net, the Buffalo trailed by nine points in the first 15 minutes and fell. Has gone. McKinley Wright may be the youngest player in college basketball, but where is the spark for everyone else?
Lurk in the bottom half: No. 3 Texas. The Longhorns are one of the teams that you want someone else to beat for you. They don’t just have big people, they have big people who can fly. If Matt Coleman, Courtney Ramey and Andrew Jones are spending a good night – and they have won their last six, four against tournament teams – you’ve got problems.
Will Michigan make it to the Final Four: No, the loss of star forward Isaiah Liver, who averaged 13.1 points and 45.7 percent 3-point shooting, is a lot to overcome. To reach the championship level, Fraser Wagner needed Wolverine to advance already; Now they need to take on the aggressive responsibility of some leavers. They will not go out politely, but they will exit before the final weekend of this tournament.
Boiler
Area: South
Area Rank: First
Biggest obstacle: No. 2 Ohio State. The Buckeyes have not won every game they have played against elite opposition. They are 3-4 against the top two seed lines and 4-6 against the top four lines. But they have been in almost every one of those games. The difference of those six defeats: 6.3 points. If the boiler makes it to the regional finals against Byers, it will be one of the rare games for OSU against a top-notch opponent, in which it will not suffer a massive loss. The longest players in the Beers’ primary rotation are 6-8 Jonathan Tchamwa Techtchaua (20 minutes per game) and 6-10 Flo Thamba (15 minutes). 6-7 EJ Liddell was forced to contend in the Big Ten.
The team they want to see: Number 4 Villanova. Are we all gathering on the Wildcats due to a knee injury from star point guard Colin Gillespie? Well, now that they have lost only two of their games without him, it is difficult not to doubt the path ahead of Villanova. It could have been a reasonably easy transition if the planned replacement Justin Moore had not been injured, as well. He played in the Big East tournament loss at Georgetown and scored 10 points, but the Wildcats dropped out of their game and shooting just 30 percent from 3-point range.
Lurk in the bottom half: No. 6 Texas Tech. There are only a few players left from the 2019 Final Four team, and the Red Raiders have lost more than their fair share of the biggest games this season. But the analytics love them because they are competitive in every game, and coach Chris Beard appears to adjust his offense by an exaggeration on guard Max McClub. They have lost enough often that an early departure will come as no surprise. But ask the other Big 12 teams if they have batted whether the Raiders will go down easily.
Will Beers be able to make the final four? The Bears were running down even before the No. 1 seed was handed the toughest bracket. It is common to find the team’s dwindling defense for a three-week halt, which the program had to withstand, but the truth is that they were starting to break into that department long before that. And now they have to deal with the possible runs of North Carolina, Purdue and Ohio State? This is a lot of challenges in a short period of time for a team that needs to bring back their act for the final four runs. Maybe after a few days their Big 12 tournament loss will help. They will not be the first team to get such an advantage. But the draw does them no favors in this regard.
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