A UN report also stated that India could spend around $ 10 billion on COVID-19 testing and healthcare utilization by September 2021, the largest share of the overall cost in the region.
A United Nations report states that India is projected to record the largest increase in the number of children under five in South Asia in 2020, with the largest number of maternal deaths being the COVID-19 epidemic.
The report also stated that India could spend around $ 10 billion on COVID-19 testing and healthcare utilization by September 2021, the largest share of the overall cost in the region.
UNICEF, the ‘Direct and Indirect Impact of COVID-19 Epidemic and Response in South Asia’ by the World Health Organization (WHO) and the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA), states that as of February 2021, South Asia compared the report More than 12 million COVID-19 cases, most of which are in India, with more than 10.9 million cases.
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The report focuses on the six most populous South Asian countries – Afghanistan, Bangladesh, India, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka and provides a critical assessment of the impact of the epidemic on child and maternal health, economy, jobs and education in these countries.
As of now, COVID-19 estimates the cost of the South Asian region at more than $ 2.4 billion, with the cost of testing ($ 1.9 billion) for COVID-19 deaths and healthcare utilization ($ 581), the report said. Million) is included.
“If the current state of affairs in terms of testing and infection control and prevention is maintained, the region is expected to spend an additional $ 8.1 billion on COVID-19 clinical trials, and on healthcare utilization by September 2018 Between $ 520 million and $ 2.4 billion depends on the level of mitigation response, ”it said.
India is expected to bear “the largest share of these costs” with more than $ 7.8 billion spent on health testing and $ 1.7 billion on health care due to the COVID-19 infection by September 2021.
Based on the results of the epidemiological model, the report states, and the potential status in infection control and prevention measures, an additional half million deaths due to COVID-19 are possible in South Asia between October 2020 and September 2021.
“This is the number of people who died from COVID-19, and who likely would not have died in the absence of an epidemic, that is, additional deaths.” The report said that India is likely to have the highest number of deaths, with more than 4,90,000 deaths being estimated in the country during this period.
The report states that it is not surprising that the expected number of admissions to hospitals and ICUs in February 2021 is also expected to be the highest in India.
However, it notes that as compared to other South Asian countries, the observed number of COVID-19 cases and deaths in India is increasing at a faster pace, with the effect of increased coverage and effectiveness of mitigation strategies also the most in the country. is more.
Management of all mitigation strategies, such as smart lockdown, hand hygiene and masks, can reduce the number of deaths in India by 83% due to COVID-19. There is an estimated 4,91,117 cumulative deaths in India between October 2020 and September 2021 due to COVID-19 under the no-extra mitigation scenario.
If all strategies were put in place, this number could drastically fall to 85,821 cumulative deaths.
The report states that maternal and child mortality has been significantly affected by disruption of sexual, reproductive, maternal, neonatal and child health services due to COVID-19.
The total number of deaths of children aged five years and under in five South Asian countries is estimated to increase by 2,28,641 in 2020 compared to the previous year. The largest increases are estimated in India (1,54,020, 15% increase) and Pakistan (59,251, 14% increase) respectively. Stillbirth is also predicted to grow in the area.
Across South Asia, the estimated South 9,437 additional stillbirths are estimated to result in lower coverage of essential health services. At the country level, India is expected to have the largest increase in the number of stillbirths (60,179, 10% increase), followed by Pakistan (39,752, 11% increase) and Bangladesh (5,502, 3% increase).
Similarly, the number of maternal deaths is also likely to increase as a result of the epidemic in 2020, with the highest number of deaths in India (7,750, 18% increase) and Pakistan (2,069, 21% increase).
Due to the expected decrease in coverage of modern contraceptive methods, South Asia is estimated to have more than 3.5 million additional unintended pregnancies, most likely in India at around three million.
The number of deaths due to maternal deaths among women aged 15–19 years is estimated to increase by a total of 1,191 in the whole of South Asia in 2020, the highest increase in India (643) and in Pakistan, compared to the previous year. is. 476), respectively.
The report said that there is a possibility of increase in juvenile mortality related to communicable disease. Across South Asia, an estimated 5,943 additional deaths from malaria, tuberculosis, HIV / AIDS and typhoid are estimated to occur as a result of reduced treatment coverage. India is expected to be the hardest hit with an additional 3,412 teen deaths.
However, the increase in both juvenile maternal and communicable disease outweighs the expected decrease in teenage deaths as a result of fewer road accident-related deaths.
An estimated 8,079 fewer teenagers are expected to die in 2020 as a result of traffic accidents in South Asia than last year, with the largest decrease in India (4,145) followed by Pakistan (2,697).
The report states that approximately nine million primary and secondary school-aged children are expected to be permanently out of schools as a result of prolonged school closures in response to the COVID-19 epidemic, which India Is expected to exceed seven million.
Disruption of education is also a considerable economic cost over the long term. Across South Asia, the lower educational attainment by this cohort will result in a 15–23% decrease in their future lifetime earnings, which will cost $ 63.5 billion over 45 years.
The highest cost will be borne by India ($ 52.8 billion) and Bangladesh ($ 7.4 billion), Sri Lanka ($ 1.9 billion).
WHO Regional Director of South-East Asia Region Drs. Poonam Khetarpal Singh said that maintaining essential health services is an important pillar of WHO’s response strategy to COVID-19.
“Countries in the region are focusing efforts on the continuation and restoration of essential services, as the disruption will only increase the risk of deaths from preventive causes.”
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