Explained. Joe Biden’s Afghanistan Peace Plan

Story so far: The Joe Biden administration has proposed a new peace plan to the Afghan government and the Taliban, seeking to stop violence and form an interim government. Secretary of State Antony Blinken wrote a letter to Afghan President Ashraf Ghani, in which US special envoy for Afghanistan Zalmay Khalilzad sent a proposal to the Afghan leader in Kabul last week.

What is the American proposal?

In the letter, which was first published by Afghanistan TOLOnews, M. Blinken has called on the Afghan president to show “immediate leadership in the coming weeks”. The proposal included several elements. First, Mr. Blinken has proposed a UN-led conference of representatives from Russia, China, Pakistan, Iran, India and the US “to discuss an integrated approach to support peace in Afghanistan”.

Second, Mr. Khalilzad will share written proposals with the Afghan leadership and the Taliban to intensify the negotiations. It urges both sides to reach a consensus on the constitutional and governance system of Afghanistan’s future; Find a road map for a new “inclusive government”; And agree on the terms of a “permanent and comprehensive ceasefire”. Mr. Blinken has also proposed a senior level meeting of the Turkish government and the Taliban in Turkey to discuss power sharing, violence reduction and other specific goals.

Why America is pushing this peace?

The Biden administration is currently reviewing its Afghan strategy. While the review is not complete, there is a consensus within the administration, as Mr. Blinken said, that “speeding up the peace process” is the best way to advance the shared interests of the US and the Afghan government. According to an agreement reached by the US with the Taliban in February 2020, US troops – currently some 2,500 soldiers are in Afghanistan – are set to leave the country by 1 May. The Taliban have warned that if the US military does not run out of time, they will fight. The Taliban and the Afghan government started peace talks in Doha in September last year, but with no success. The Biden administration is concerned about the slow pace of negotiations.

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The US assesses that if American troops are driven out of Afghanistan, the Taliban will make quick gains. When asked by commander of NATO troops in Afghanistan Austin Miller recently the new YorkerIf he thinks that the Afghan army alone can secure the country, he did not directly respond. He said, “He said.

In his letter to Mr. Ghani, Mr. Blinken was clear about the progress of the Taliban. “We are considering a full withdrawal of our army by 1 May, as we consider other options. Even with a US military withdrawal continuing to provide financial support to your forces from the US, I worry that the security situation will worsen and the Taliban may rapidly make regional gains, ”he writes.

So, the Biden administration assesses that the Taliban are on the ascent. It hopes that the best way to prevent a complete Taliban takeover is a regional peace process and an interim unity government. The Taliban is yet to respond to the US proposal.

What is the attitude of Afghan government?

The Gani administration has consistently been critical of the US direct outreach to the Taliban. The Trump administration left the government, having direct talks with the Taliban. Later, Washington pressured Kabul that it arrived with the rebels as part of an agreement to release Taliban prisoners. Even when the Doha negotiations were underway between the Taliban and the Afghan government, Mr. Ghani made it clear that the president, elected as president, is the sole legitimate representative of the Afghan people and opposed the concession to the Taliban. “My power rests on my legitimacy,” he said recently. “The moment the legitimacy is gone, that’s the whole point.”

Relations between Mr Ghani and Mr Khalilzad broke down in recent months. When mr. When Blinken’s letter was leaked, Mr. Ghani was quick to respond. He reiterated his opposition to any transfer of power except elections. His vice-president Amritullah Saleh, a staunch critic of the Taliban, said the US “can decide on its troops, not on the people of Afghanistan”.

What will happen next?

While the Afghan government’s opposition to sharing power with the Taliban is well known, it is unclear whether Mr Ghani can continue to resist US pressure, especially if the US brings on board regional powers, including India. And if the Biden administration decides to deal with the Taliban deal and withdraw troops by May, Mr. Ghani will be in trouble. He has no good choice. If he rejects the American proposal, the war will continue forever. The Taliban have already captured most of the country and are bending the neck of their cities. If he accepts the proposal, he will have to share power with the Taliban and discuss amendments to the constitution and future governance structures. Either way, the Taliban are ready to turn a profit.