Which Pac-12 team has the best final four bets? Trends for Odds, Sweet 16 and beyond

The Pac-12 came as a surprise after putting four teams in the Sweet 16 in the first weekend of the 2021 NCAA men’s basketball tournament.

Will that story be forgotten by the end of the second weekend? This is the question for a conference trying to win its first national championship since 1997.

The Pac-12 Elite Eight has a team guarantee. No. 6 USC and No. 7 Oregon meet in the East Region semifinals on Sunday. A couple of two-digit seeds are also left in the conference. No. 12 Oregon State meets No. 8 Loyola-Chicago in the Midwest Region semifinals on Saturday, and No. 11 UCLA faces No. 2 Alabama in the West Region semifinals on Sunday.

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Will that lead to a breakthrough for the last four? Sporting News looks at the Pac-12 tournament trends and makes a case for each team left in the tournament:

Pac-12 in Sweet 16

The Pac-12 has four teams in the Sweet 16 for the first time since 2001. Arizona lost the national championship that season.

Since 1990, the conference has placed four teams in the Sweet 16 four times. It took place in back-to-back years in 1997 – when the Wildcats won the national championship – and again in 1998.

The 2010s saw a dramatic drop in success. The Pac-12 saw deficiencies in the Sweet 16 and Elite Eight teams, and Oregon was the only team to score the final four in 2017.

In the 2018 and 2019 tournaments, Oregon was the only team to score a Sweet 16. The Pac-12 is 20–31 in the Sweet 16 matchup since 1990, and the Elite is 9–11 in eight matches in the same stretch. UCLA and Arizona have combined for seven of those Final Four appearances. There is an appe in Stanford and Oregon.

Pac-12 in 2021

All four Pac-12 teams in this year’s tournament average 75 points or more per game in Big Dance. Oregon (95.0) led the way with the weekend’s best offensive production. USC (78.5), UCLA (75.3) and Oregon State (75.0) were also the high-scoring teams of the first weekend.

Of those four teams, Oregon State was the only team not shooting at least 45 percent from the field. The Beavers missed out on just 44.9 percent. The Ducks (55.9 percent) and the Trojans (53.5 percent) were hot, and the Bruins had a three-game total of 47 percent.

If that hot shooting continues into the second round as well, the Pac-12 schools will have a chance to advance to the Final Four.

Pac-12 Final Four Odds

Here’s a look at each Pac-12 Last Four Chances, via Fanduel.com:

USC (+600)

USC has the best of four teams in 7-foot center Evan Mbale, who averaged 13.5 points and 12 rebounds in the first two rounds. The Trojans defeated the Ducks 72-58 on February 22, but the line is a 1-point tossup at this point. The Trojans have not played Gonzaga since 1992 and have not made the Final Four since 1954. There is a lot of history to overcome, but this may be his best shot given that Andy Enfield has gathered. It is the best bet of four teams.

Oregon (+700)

The Ducks are healthy, and it shows on offense. Oregon remains the Pac-12’s most consistent tournament team since 2016 with four Sweet 16 appearances. In the Elite Eight they may be better equipped for a shootout with Gonzaga if it comes. Teams met in 2019 and the Bulldogs won 73–72. Oregon would have to go to the Elite Eight first, and it would not be easy against USC. The Duck has the best track record among the four teams with Dana Altman.

UCLA (+750)

Guards Johnny Jujang and Jaime Jacquez have combined to average 40 points per game in the tournament, and the Bruins have a guard-oriented offense that can challenge Alabama in the Sweet 16. The Crimson Tide matches well, though, and has a presence in Herb Jones that will be difficult to match. Even if UCLA bothered, it would have to be redone with a tough matchup against Florida State or Michigan. There is a lot to ask from the First Four team.

Oregon State (+1100)

The only teams with long odds to make the Final Four are Creighton (+1500) and Oral Roberts (+3000). However, the Beavers have the lowest chalk in their region, and have won eight of their last nine games. Including wins against USC, Oregon and UCLA. Oregon State is a much better free-throw shooting team than Loyola, and could surface if it gets tight late. This is the best investment given the potential returns.