Let’s start here: It’s not crazy to take multiple 12-over-5 upsets on your bracket. It is not crazy any year, and it is not crazy especially this year.
First, some historical numbers began with the 1985 tournament (when the region expanded to 64 teams):
35: At least one in 12 years pulled a troubled seed
13: At least two 12 seeds in the year pulled an upset
5: Year three 12 seed pulled a troubled
5: Year 12 pulled a troubled seed no
It’s unbelievable, isn’t it? In the overall seed list, teams are ranked 17-18-19-20 on the 5-seed line. In the same seed list, teams are ranked 46-47-48-49 on the 12 seed line. This is a big difference in the quality of the teams. At least, it looks like it will happen. And yet, in 40 years of the expanded bracket, the 12 seeds have actually won 35.7 percent of their games (50–90).
UPS limit by seed
15 vs 2 | 14 vs 3 | 13 vs 4 | 12 vs 5
Now, let’s look at the 12-vs-5 matchup in the 2021 tournament.
12 Winthrop vs. 5 Villanova, South Zone
FanDuel Odds: Villanova-6, O / U 141
Why this can happen: Look, nothing is certain in the NCAA tournament. Especially upsets. Those that look like obvious upsets picks often wind up winning the high seed in a blowout. That said, this matchbox has every element you bother with.
Let’s start with Winthrop. The Eagles are 23-1, which is impressive, and they are playing their best basketball of the season. Here are the winning margins for Winthrop in the Big South tournament: 29 points, 21 points, 27 points. Chandler Woodrin, an Eagles point guard, is an active NCAA leader in career triple-doubles (eight). Big man DJ Burns, a former four-star recruit who moved from Tennessee, shot 22 in the Big South title game, shooting 11-of-12 from the field. Winthrop drives players and waves on a regular basis – 11 players averaging 11 minutes or more, but Wodderin is the only one above 25 per game – allowing them to force tempo and wear teams down. Particularly teams dealing with injury issues (hints, hints).
And then, there is Villanova. The Wildcats were in a 1/2-seed conversation for a long time, but they are no longer what they once were. They have played four games in the last two-plus weeks and have lost three of them. Jeremiah Robinson-Earl is still an incredible player capable of taking the game, no doubt about it. But senior point guard Coleen Gillespie, who averaged 14.0 points and 4.6 per game and shot 37.6 percent from 3-point range, is out with an injury. Justin Moore, who averages over a dozen points, is working with a painful ankle sprain. And when Gillespie and Moore combined to play 70 minutes on Butler, the Wildcats lost by a dozen on the road. Let’s just put it this way: Most coaches would like that their team is playing well in the NCAA tournament and is perfectly healthy, and Villanova neither checks those boxes.
12 Georgetown vs. 5 Colorado, West Region
FanDuel Odds: Colorado-4.5, O / U 138
Why this can happen: I have not paid attention to the numbers, but I believe that there has not been a time that the “Power” conference team won their league championship game by 25 points and won as many as 12 seeds. And the thing is, this is probably the right seed for the Hoys, who are just 13–12 and they had to win all four beta games to climb above 500 for the first time. But who in their right mind would want to face a team that is playing like Georgetown right now?
Look, Colorado is solid. Buffalo had won six in a row in a Pac-12 title game before Oregon State fell – including two WSs against a very good USC team. But they are capable of hiccups; The Buffs lost the game this year to three Pac-12 teams that didn’t even sniff big bids (Washington, Utah and California), and might have fallen a bit at 5.
More brief image: DeCourcy (Gonzaga) | Alcoholic (Illinois) | Fagan (Gonzaga)
12 UC Santa Barbara vs. 5 Creighton, West Region
FanDuel Odds: Crayton-6.5, O / U 139
Why this can happen: Creighton has been a strange team this season. Games are when they look elite eight-good – like when they beat Villanova on 16 February 13 – and games when they see that they have completely lost on the court – like the Big East title game, when They lost to Georgetown by 25 points. Hit-or-miss nature is not the biggest feature for a team in March, to say the least. And will coach Greg McDermott’s horrific remarks play a role in distracting the team when they should be fully focused on the next game? It is impossible to know for sure, but it is not impossible to be true.
And, yes, UC Santa Barbara is valid. They were at the 4-3 mark early in the season, dropping back-to-back games at UC Irvine in late December. Since then, they are 18–1, and the 18th win was against the Big West title game, you guessed it, UC Irvine. UCSB won one by 16 points. They are balanced, with guard JaQuori McLaughlin leading the way from 16.2 points per game on 40.4 percent shooting from beyond the 3.2-point arc. Forwards Amadou Sov and Miles Norris combined for an average of 23.3 points and 12.1 rebounds.
12 Oregon State vs. 5 Tennessee, Eastern Region
FanDuel Odds: Tennessee-7.5, O / U 133
Why this can happen: I think it’s likely to be 12-over-at least 5-upset in this year’s bracket, but don’t count Beavers as a whole. He chewed off three Pac-12 teams in UCLA, Oregon and Colorado during league tournaments to earn the Pac-12’s auto bid. He would not have held the NCAA tournament without it. They like to slow the tempo, and it works from time to time in March. Oregon State was ranked 315th in adjusted tempo this year, with an average of 65.4 possessions per game.
Tennessee is really solid, though. The Vols play a deliberate brand of basketball, too – they rank 233rd in tempo, at 67.3 – so controlling the pace is not a huge advantage for Oregon State. And the Tennessee defense is firm; The Vols ranked fourth in adjusted defensive efficiency (87.0). It is difficult to maintain those types of diarrhea in March.
Field Construction:
WEST | East | South | MIDWEST
Which 12 seeds are best for a troubadour?
If you have overcome it, then you know that I am picking up Winthrop. The combination of how good the Eagles are and Villanova’s recent injuries / struggles makes it an easy pick.
If you’re looking at the odds – and you’re not Han Solo – Georgetown is probably your best bet; The spread in that game is the shortest (4.5) of any of the 12/5 matches.
If you only pick the Pacific Coast time zone team to win the game, by all means go with Oregon State over Tennessee.
If you are a believer in potential team chemistry issues, you could do worse than picking Crayton to lose the opener.
For a ranking, most likely to least: Winthrop, Georgetown, UCSB Then, finally, Oregon State.
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