Tectonic unrest in Dravidian politics

However every state in India (and a union territory) will have assembly elections this year, which represents a uniquely liberal matrix between contested parties and challenges. remain so, Somewhere compared to Tamil Nadu, there has been a sea change in the ground reality flowing in the political landscape. For the first time in half a century, the land of the Dravidian movement is joining the democratic fray, with prominent figures from leaders of both major parties historically governed – the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) and the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK). M. With the demise of Karunanidhi (DMK) and Jayalalithaa (AIADMK), the heads of these two parties, who had won several victories at Hastings and set the template in the context of an autocratic style of management of cadres, the vacuum of power that led to state politics Has opened up to a historic opportunity for change. To better understand this opportunity, it is instructive to examine the vectors of change.

Legacy of leadership

First, there has been a dramatic shift in the fundamental nature of leadership, keeping its focus on the DMK and AIADMK. It is true that DMK has a more successful ‘business continuity plan’. Its current president, MK Stalin, was about to be anointed duly to step into his father’s shoes after Karunanidhi’s demise. Karunanidhi’s ultimate gift to his party, the transition of leadership mantra to his son, helped Mr. Stalin see the initial challenge from older siblings and southern region strongman MK Alagiri. However, despite Mr Stalin’s many years of experience as mayor in Chennai, the MLA, the Minister of Rural Development and Local Administration, the Deputy Chief Minister, the Leader of Opposition and, since August 2018, the President of his party, has yet to win a single state assembly election. Have not found

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Karunanidhi won the DMK-led elections less than 10 times. In comparison, there are unanswered questions about whether Mr. Stalin can rise to his father’s formidable standards in terms of organizational shrewdness and personal charisma – at least in the realm of state politics. It matters well for Mr. Stalin that he presided over the DMK’s stupendous victory in the parliamentary elections in 2019, in which the DMK and its allies won 38 of the 39 seats. But will voters be convinced by Mr. Stalin’s leadership promise to the extent that they will vote in 2021 the same way they did two years ago?

In contrast, the AIADMK, as it remained after Jayalalithaa’s passing, was a shadow of her former self. The responsibility for that responsibility rests on the shoulders of the late leader himself. For this Jayalalithaa dropped at least four positions of potential future leaders within the party organization. It was Jayalalithaa who, among each member of her party, institutionalized a culture of rejection of compulsory public displays of highness or lowliness and loyalty and subordination to her personality. More than this, it formalized an undemocratic dictatorial style of decision making within the party and mocked whatever party and administrative structures were within the government when the AIADMK was in power.

However, the leadership of the AIADMK for the last four years in his party’s politics can pull together the survivors of this unipolar period and describe the people of the state as truly ‘good governance’. COVID-19 allows flood management terms with the center regarding funding to fight the epidemic, or to allow industries to operate more space than to be put out of business. Despite Jayalalithaa’s dissatisfaction and dissatisfaction with the early days, she did nothing of the sort. Chief Minister Edappadi K. Palaniswami and Deputy Chief Minister o. What was initially a fragile peace among Panneerselvam was surprisingly strengthened.

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What gets this analysis wet is whether the voters of Tamil Nadu will recognize and reward this type of good governance, or will other factors determine their electoral priorities?

The voter is studying

Voters in this state have proved from time to time that they have a separate party to form a separate party at the state level on most seats in parliamentary elections. A close review of this division in voting preferences suggests that a pattern has emerged: Since the turn of the 21st century, DMK and AIADMK have occupied more than 15 years of seats in parliamentary and state assembly elections, respectively. .

Opinion Dravidian movement ‘protection’

It would not be unfair to say that this points to a collective belief on the part of voters in the state that the AIADMK is a party with strong governance credibility at the state level, while the DMK has proved its strength against a heavy-centric central government. Also, given the dramatic change in the balance of power and prevailing political ideologies in Tamil Nadu in the last few years, even this perception now stands on the ground. There is a signpost c-voter poll hinting at possible election results at the moment, which has recently indicated a sweep by the DMK.

Ideological conflict effect

This brings us another major change in the political landscape as the growing national footprint of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and its brand of muscular Hindutva politics, which is now attempting to penetrate the strongholds of the southern states and West Bengal.

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To understand the situation that the BJP settles in the pantry of political parties in Tamil Nadu, it is necessary to go back to the very roots of the Dravidian movement. An aggressive anti-Brahmin, anti-religion, anti-religion, anti-North Indian, anti-Hindi policy formulation was started in early days as CN Annadurai under Periyar EV Ramasamy and DMK. In the 1970s and beyond, under the pressure of political competition from rival AIADMK, the leadership’s more inclusive, housingist bent.

As both the DMK and AIADMK, many additional lower and middle-castes were integrated into the broader Dravidian agenda, priorities shifted from “vocal populism” to capitalizing on the enmity of the central government and its allies. . “Patriarchal populism” includes a charismatic but self-enriching autocrat that distributes public welfare goods.

While some historical elements of vocal populism have faded away as the population has adjusted to the socio-economic realities of post-liberalization India, a constant echo of Tamil exceptionalism is deeply ingrained within the collective psyche of the common woman and this man . State. Not only this extravagance has nothing to do with the complexities of Tamil language distinctiveness, traditions, cinema, rural sub-culture and caste politics, but there is also a shared militant opposition to the idea of ​​the Tamil people to share. , Hindi-speaking, upper caste- and Hindu-dominated government in New Delhi.

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To an extent, the inherent preference for ideologically committed leaders who are exceptionally skilled in managing a party organization is inconsistent with the quality and tenure of leadership recently seen in the AIADMK. Concern over the political system that may reduce the chances of realizing the dream of Tamil exceptionalism is also inconsistent with the AIADMK’s alliance with the BJP. The BJP has done some favors in terms of its own political position in the state, as it has tried to make marks on issues related to Hindutva politics rather than Dravidism. If the majority of voters are fundamentally opposed to the ideology of the Sangh Parivar, why would they care?

Finally, due to a strong preference for regional politics capable of pushing back against the overarching, homogeneous ideologies of national parties, the notion of perceived extravagance may wind up under the DMK’s wings in a hurry next month.

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