Sunday’s selection for the 2021 NCAA men’s basketball tournament is just a few days.
The 68-team field conference tournament is taking shape through the week, and there are 33 conference tournament games on Wednesday’s schedule. A lot can change from the No. 1 seed to the bubble in the next four days, and SN will do the selections from here on Sunday with the daily updates.
A look at Sporting News’s updated field until Wednesday, March 10:
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March Madness bracket forecast for 2021 NCAA tournament
Estimated number 1 seed
- ** Gonzagaaga 26-0 (West Coast)
- Baylor 21-1 (Big 12)
- Michigan 19-3 (Big Ten)
- Illinois 20-6
Inferiority: Gonzaga won the West Coast Conference tournament for the eighth time in nine seasons and should be a virtual lock for the top seed in the tournament. Baylor also locks for the No. 1 seed heading into the Big Ten tournament. Illinois and Michigan will likely remain on this line as well, but it may need to win at least one game in the Big Ten tournament.
Estimated 2 seeds
- Alabama 21-6 (SEC)
- Iowa 20-7
- Houston 21-3 (American)
- Ohio State 18-8
Inferiority: Iowa and Ohio State are interesting 2-seeds on different paths. The Hawkeyes could reach No. 1 with a strong performance in Indianapolis. Iowa is ranked No. 4 in KenPom, so it is possible. The Buckeyes, meanwhile, are a boundary 3-seed after losing their last four matches of the regular season. Ohio State slipped to the No. 5 seed in the Big Ten tournament. To be fair, three of those late-season defeats were to top-10 teams.
Estimated 3 seeds
- Arkansas 21-5
- Virginia 17-6 (ACC)
- Kansas 19-8
- Texas 17-7
Inferiority: Arkansas enters the SEC tournament as one of the hottest teams in college basketball. The Razorks have won eight straight, including an 81-66 victory against Alabama on Feb. 24. Arkansas can play easily in the No. 2 line. The Big 12 will put four teams on the No. 3 or No. 4 line, depending on how they fare in the Big 12 tournament. Kansas and Texas are more seeds than the pair of teams we placed on the No. 4 line – and KenPom has ranked them even higher.
4 seeds are estimated
- Villanova 16-5 (Big East)
- West Virginia 18-8
- Oklahoma State 18-7
- Purdue 18-8
Inferiority: West Virginia and Oklahoma State play in the Big 12 quarterfinals on Thursday, so that debate should resolve. Villanova feels that there is a touch less here given their No. 10 KenPom rating, and they could easily be held pending a line (or two) in the Big East tournament. Purdue defeated the No. 4 seed in the Big Ten tournament, but there is a significant difference between him and the other high seeds in the conference.
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Estimated 5 seeds
- Florida State 15-5
- Crayton 18-7
- Oregon 19-5 (Pac-12)
- USC 21-6
Inferiority: Florida State has a strong case for climbing into that No. 4 line and has split from Purdue by a spot on KenPom. The Seminoles lost two of their last three matches in the regular season. Oregon is the top seed in the Pac-12 tournament, and the Ducks won their last five matches in the regular season. That said, Oregon had a 1-2 record against USC and Colorado this season. The buffalo could easily be placed on this line.
6 seeds are estimated
- Colorado 20-7
- Clemson 16-6
- Texas Tech 17-9
- Oklahoma 14-9
Inferiority: Big 12 love continues. All seven tournament teams could be on the first six lines in the conference, and Texas Tech could pass as the No. 5 seed at this point. Clemson closed out the season with six wins in their last seven matches. They are in decent shape to stay on this line.
Projected 7 seeds
- Tennessee 17-7
- LSU 16-8
- San Diego State 20-4 (Mountain West)
- Wisconsin 16-11
Inferiority: The Badgers have a double-digit loss, but they top the Big Ten tournament with a KenPom rating of No. 11. He is a prime candidate for a touch based on the strength of the Big Ten. LSU, which won five of its last seven matches, and Tennessee, which finished 3-3 in its final six, are both on the line right now.
8 seeds are estimated
- Florida 13-8
- UConn 14-6
- ** Loyola-Chicago 24-4 (Missouri Valley)
- North Carolina 16-9
Inferiority: That there is a lot of blue blood on the number 8 line with tar heels, hawks and gators; But Team No.1 seeds may be wary of Loyola-Chicago. The Rambers have lost only one game since 11 January.
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Estimates for rest area
No. 9 seeds: Virginia Tech 15-5, St. Bonventure (A-10), Missouri 15-8, BYU 20-6
Number 10 seed: Georgia Tech 15-8, UCLA 17-8, Louisville 13-6, Rutgers 14-10
11 seeds: Michigan State 15-11, Maryland 15-12, VCU 19-6, Winthrop 23-1 (Big South)
Number 12 seed: Louisiana Tech 20-6 (C-USA), Wichita State 15-4, Colorado State * 17-5, Drake * 25-4, St. Louis * 14-6, Xavier * 13-7
13 no seeds: Toledo 20-7 (MAC), UC Santa Barbara 19-4 (Big West), Colgate 12-7 (Patriot), ** Liberty 22-5 (A-Sun)
14 seeds: ** UNC-Greensboro 20-8 (Southern), ** Morehead State 23-7 (Ohio Valley), Grand Canyon 15-6 (WAC), Southern Utah 19-3 (Big Sky)
15 no seeds: ** Cleveland State 19-7 (Horizon), Siena 12-4 (MAAC), Nicholas State 17-6 (Southland), Hartford 13-8 (East of America)
No. 16 seeds: Prairie View A&M 14-4 (SWAC), ** Oral Roberts 16-10 (Summit), North Carolina A&T * 11-10 (MEAC), ** Appalachian State * 17-11 (Sun Belt), ** Mount St. Mary’s * 12-10 (Northeast), ** Dressel 12-7 * (Colonial)
* First four teams
** Teams that make automatic bids
In the last four
- St. Louis 14-6
- Xavier 13-7
- Drake 25-4
- Colorado State 17-5
Inferiority: Drake did not win his conference tournament, but the Bulldogs should crack the zone of 68. Colorado State won a better game in the MWC tournament to beat two bubble teams in the same conference.
First four out
- Utah State 18-7
- Boise State 18-7
- Syracuse 15-8
- Ole miss 15-10
Inferiority: In some estimates the state of Utah or Boise State favors one of the last four spots above the state of Colorado. Syracuse will be watching those games closely, but the Orange need to defeat Neck State, another fringe bubble team, in an 8-9 game in the ACC tournament. We are Ole Miss ahead of Seton Hall in Peking order, but that may change. Duke and Indiana are off our radar right now.
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