IMF says vaccine inequality threatens Middle East economic recovery

Middle East economies are rapidly recovering from the coronovirus epidemic, largely due to the acceleration of inoculation campaigns and rising oil prices. But the International Monetary Fund warned on Sunday that an uneven vaccine would halt the rebound of the distribution sector, as the chances of rich and poor countries run out.

In its latest report, the IMF revisited its 2020 economic outlook for Midst and North Africa, now outlining just 3.4% contraction last year, growth for the region’s oil exporters and a surge in commodity prices and With the rise in the price of oil. Which hit $ 67 a barrel in March.

With the projected drop to $ 57 per barrel by the end of 2021, growth from last year’s all-time lows is fueling the Persian Gulf’s oil-rich countries, such as the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia, which have also moved. Towards increasingly widespread vaccination.

But permanent traces left in the region, from Yemen and Sudan to Libya and Lebanon, where inflation, instability and warfare continue, will draw the damaging effects of the epidemic and cause economic losses, the IMF said – possibly Come for years.

Jihad Azur, director of the Middle East and Central Asia Department at the IMF, told the Associated Press, “We are one year behind in crisis and recovery, but this is an improvement.” “We are at the crossroads. … Vaccination policy is economic policy. “The IMF expects economic growth for the Middle East to reach 4% this year. But the primitive approach papers about that region’s deep economic divide.

For oil-rich economies, this year is expected to reduce yawning shortages as revenue declines, more weapons recapture Jabbar and lockdown measures, Azure said. Thanks to the gradual waves of viruses and strong government management of the blow in oil prices, Saudi Arabia’s economy will expand by 2.9% compared to the contraction of 4.1% last year. High oil prices come as the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies keep a lid on production and it does not seem likely that the US will quickly lift sanctions on Iran’s vital oil field.

The IMF expects the UAE economy to grow by 3.2% with Dubai’s World Expo this year, now rescheduled to October 2021, critical to the country’s recovery. Dubai hopes the massive event will generate 25 million visitors and a series of deals, symbolizing a bright post-pandemic future.

The UAE has launched among the world’s fastest inoculation campaigns, with more than 90 doses given per 100 inhabitants as of this week. According to rating agency S&P Global, the collapse of the hospitality, tourism and retail sector presents challenges for Glitzy Dubai, where a layoff layoff kills foreign workers and slashes the Emirate’s population by 8.4%.

The outlook is bleak for weak and developing economies, with many vaccination campaigns, fiscal incentives and some resources for revenue heavily drawn from areas such as tourism that have been the slowest to recover from the epidemic.

The IMF said the rich countries planned to vaccinate the majority of their population in a few months, which ranged from Afghanistan and Gaza to Iraq and Iran.

Even that estimate can be optimistic. According to the report, the lowest income countries in the region can wait until 2023. Meanwhile, many countries’ troubled health systems are undergoing a wave of resurgent infections, prompting authorities to impose new sanctions and inflict more economic suffering.

The IMF expects 2021 lethargy for Egypt and Pakistan, with oil importers relying on tourism last year. The fund revised its growth estimate for Jordan, where the youth unemployment rate has reached 55%. Sudan remains debt-ridden and vulnerable to instability, but its economy may grow for the first time in years as it gains new access to international financial networks.

Lebanon, in the midst of its worst financial crisis, remains the only Middle East economy at risk of further contraction. The country has defaulted on its foreign debt and has failed to implement economic reforms, let alone form a government. Last year, a huge explosion at the port of Beirut wreaked havoc on the capital. After leaving the cabinet, discussions with the IMF took place nowhere.

Azure refused to offer a special economic forecast for Lebanon this year, citing “all the uncertainties.” In Iran, the IMF found a reason to praise economic growth after years of decline, noting that the government had destroyed resistance to a virus-induced lockdown that would have devastated its sanctions-hit economy, calling it Was saved from the worst outcome of the epidemic. The nation’s economy is expected to grow 2.5% in 2021, Azour said, building on modest gains last year.

But Iran’s recovery is far from over as its vaccination gap, inflation overwhelms people’s savings and undermines economic policies at its most vulnerable. The IMF continues to consider Iran’s $ 5 billion aid request, its first loan since 1962. Meanwhile, US sanctions are enforced, as Tehran’s 2015 torture negotiations for a withdrawal of the nuclear deal with world powers begin.