Home » 12.5% ​​expected growth for India but “very serious downside risk” due to COVID wave: IMF

12.5% ​​expected growth for India but “very serious downside risk” due to COVID wave: IMF

The report says that different results will solve the health crisis everywhere.

According to the World Economic Outlook (WEO), India is projected to grow by 12.5% ​​during the current year ending March 31, after a projected contraction of 8% in the fiscal year, to 6.9% growth year (FY22 / 23) has arrived. ): The management of divergent records issued by the IMF as World Bank IMF Meeting virtually ceased. IMF economists said that the growth outlook for India comes with significant downside risks as an epidemic wave is going on in the country.

IMF Chief Economist Geeta Gopinath said at a press conference on Tuesday, the projections for India were based on evidence to support the normalization of economic activity, but these forecasts carried forward the current wave of COVID-19 in India.

Current development projections already take “a fairly conservative view”, IMF economist Malhar Nabar said.

“But it is true that it is very worrying in cases … gives a very serious downside risk to the growth outlook for the economy,” he said.

After an estimated contraction of 3.3% in 2020 (calendar year), the global economy is expected to grow 6% this year and 4.4% next year, although there are significant differences within and between countries. Estimates for 2021 are slightly higher due to fiscal support and vaccine-backed recovery in some large economies in October 2020. The US's 1.3 percentage point forecast upgrade specifically contributed to this, resulting in US growth estimates of 6.4% and 3.5% this calendar year and beyond.

US GDP levels are projected to be higher than the non-epidemic scenario in 2022 – the only large economy for which this is true. Other economies also expect it to rebound at a slower rate according to the IMF this year. The euro area is projected to grow 4.4% and 3.8% over these time ; China, at 8.4% and 5.6%.

Global growth is projected to settle at 3.3% in the medium term due to supply-side losses, as well as factors that are likely to result in an epidemic such as aging (which is a result of advanced economics and slower labor force growth in some emerging markets ).

“Gopinath said,” Even in countries under recession, economies undergoing recession have slowed, such as slower vaccine rollouts, more limited policy support, and less dependence on tourism.

The report said that different results will solve the health crisis everywhere. The average annual loss in per capita GDP in the period 2020–24 relative to pre-epidemic forecasts is expected to be 5.7% in low-income countries and 4.7% in emerging markets; for advanced economies, the number is lower: 2.3 %.

The epidemic pushed another 95 million into extreme poverty in 2020

Ms. Gopinath said, “Such losses are due to poverty reduction, with an additional 95 million people expected to enter the ranks of the poorer in 2020, compared to pre-epidemic estimates.”

Pointing to uneven recovery within countries, Ms. Gopinath wrote, unskilled, youth and women were more affected.

“Women have also suffered more, especially in emerging markets and developing economies. Because the crisis has intensified the transformational forces of digitalization and automation, many of the lost work is unlikely to return, requiring labor recovery in sectors – which often comes with severe penalties, “Ms. Gopinath Written with the report in a blogpost.

The COVID-19 pandemic is expected to ‘leave small marks' from the 2008 financial crisis due to unprecedented economic backlash. However, emerging markets and low-income countries are expected to suffer a more moderate level of loss than their high-income counterparts according to the IMF.

Given the large uncertainty the outlook, the report recommended that policy governors “prioritize policies that would be prudent, regardless of the state of the world that prevailed – for example, of widespread eligibility for unemployment insurance.” As well as strengthening social security, covering self-employment and working informally. ”It also advocated adequate resources for investment in health care, education, vocational training, early childhood development programs and green infrastructure.

Reports for international cooperation, particularly to ensure adequate vaccine access globally, adequately funding COVAX, including an international vaccine facility.

“The international community also needs to work together to ensure that economically constrained economies have adequate access to international liquidity so that they can afford the healthcare, other social, and infrastructure spending necessary for development and per capita income. To be necessary for access to higher levels of, ”the IMF report states.


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